Agenda item

To provide the Forum with updates on:surplus and deficit school places for the September 2018 intake; pupil forecasts going forwards and  the allocations and appeals process, and, in particular, for Kings Academy Binfield.

The Forum considered a report providing updates on surplus and deficit school places for the September 2018 intake; pupil forecasts going forwards and  the allocations and appeals process, in particular, for Kings Academy Binfield.

Chris Taylor and Graham Symonds joined the Forum to make a presentation to highlight some of the key issues in the report around school place planning including the strategic planning options to be considered as demand grew.

The Forum was advised that Bracknell Forest had experienced a period of sustained growth in pupil numbers across the Borough, with the following rises over the last eight years between 2009 to 2017 by:

•           Primary           1,762 or 21%

•           Secondary         585 or 9%

Sufficient places had been provided over this period through a sustained programme of capital investment. Over £125m had been invested in creating additional capacity into the school estate over this period, drawn from a combination of Council funding, developer contributions and external grants.

Forecast growth in the short to medium term in the five year 2018/24 School Places Plan suggested that based on current pupil yield factors for new housing, numbers could increase by up to:

•           Primary           1,441 or 14%

•           Secondary      1,523 or 22%

Forecast growth in the long term (15 years) was dependent on whether the Council adopted a new Local Plan, but assuming this was adopted, it was estimated there could be potentially up to 12,550 new dwellings built across the Borough between 2018 and 2034. Based on current pupil yield factors, pupil numbers could be expected to rise by up to:

•           Primary            3,865 or 38%

•           Secondary       2,875 or 41%

Future housing remained the greatest factor in the growth in pupil numbers, however despite the increase in house building, there was now also a fall in the birth rate.

Bracknell Forest was experiencing a population bulge currently moving up from primary to secondary, which was also being experienced by other local authorities across the South East. This bulge had been met by a programme of expanding existing schools whilst planning for new schools. With the arrival of the new schools, the picture was changing and moving from managing a scarcity of places to managing the introduction of surplus places as the new schools came on stream in advance of completion of housing developments that are expected to fill up the schools.

The main points made during the presentation and subsequent discussion were that:

·                     There were now surpluses in both primary and secondary places.

·                     Primary numbers would continue to rise as too would secondary numbers but at a greater rate.

·                     Housing pupil yield rates were amongst the highest in the South East.

·                     Demand could be met by school, by organisational area or on a borough-wide basis.

·                     The expansion of a school could take up to seven years.

·                     Secondary forecasts were generally good.

·                     Primary forecasts for September 2018 had not been as good as usual but it was not clear whether it was just a blip. 

·                     The 10% difference between the primary forecast and actual numbers may be because of the economic environment but efforts were being made to identify the reasons for and address the gap with a view to achieving more accuracy.

·                     House building numbers which had an important role in the forecasting process were dependent on the developers building at the rates anticipated.

·                     By 2024 all schools would be full if current forecasts were correct, but if they were not, a large number could be below PAN as at present and facing significant financial challenges.

·                     To address the primary number inaccuracies, the officers were looking at the assumptions and the data going into the models.

·                     There was flexibility in the system to address any ongoing fluctuations in the forecasts including delaying building new schools, building them smaller or not building them at all, but the current year’s variance was greater than usual.

·                     The wisdom of delivering 1FE schools was challenged when they were more expensive to run.

·                     The 1FE model had come in for more scrutiny recently due to the concerns around viability and cost and 1FE schools were only likely to be delivered in the future if there was no other option.

·                     Kings Academy Binfield and Amen Corner North would not have two heads but be run by one head.

·                     The Council was working on making schools more viable and less vulnerable.

·                     Demand for special school places was being reviewed as 37% were being exported out of borough which may not be best for them.

·                     The School Places Plan was updated annually and formally approved by the Executive following appropriate consultation with interested parties.

There was a general consensus amongst the school representatives that Binfield Learning Village had arrived too early and, as a result, had created a problem for existing schools which were now facing below PAN numbers and losing funding as a result.  In response to this, the Forum was advised that the Council would not want to create more surplus capacity.  There were potential school sites identified in areas of new development, but they were not committed and would not be committed unless the demand was there.  Prudence, however, dictated that the Council should make provision for the projected numbers.  Sites set aside for new schools could be returned to developers if not required.  Shorter term forecasting was more accurate but there was a need to look at the longer term too.

In noting the Plan, the Forum expressed concern that the current position was adversely impacting on current pupils due to the financial pressures being created by the surplus of places caused by the delivery of new schools for which there did not appear to be sufficient demand.

The Forum noted:

1          Surplus and deficit school places for the September 2018 intake.

2          Pupil forecasts in the 2018-24 School Places Plan going forwards.

3          The allocations and appeals processes, in particular for Kings Academy Binfield.